Prepare for the SLUSH!
The Climate Prediction Center for NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) just released their outlook for the 2024-2025 winter season, and it looks like New England is in for a warm(er) one.
The seasonal forecast includes December 2024 through February 2025, and analyzes the probability of warmer or cooler temperatures and more or less precipitation than usual for regions across the U.S. The outlook is based on recent weather trends, with New England trending warmer than most of the rest of the country, partially due to higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near the coast.
In the released Seasonal Temperature Outlook map, Boston falls squarely in the “above normal” wave, with a 40-50% chance of “above normal” temperatures this year. The rest of the New England region is in the same boat.
For the Seasonal Precipitation Outlook map on the other hand, Boston just misses the “leaning above” probability curve and falls into the “equal chances” space — meaning there is an equal chance it could have above or below normal precipitation. Other parts of New England do fall into that “above” wave, like New Hampshire and Vermont and parts of Northern Mass., meaning they are more likely to have above normal precipitation for this winter season.
Of course, snow is quite common for Boston winters (even though last year was a bitttt less than expected), so even if the map doesn’t predict anything out of the ordinary, it always pays to be prepared!